SVFXPRO

Translate

Monday, 31 August 2015

Crude oil futures give back some of last week's massive gains

Oil futures decline after last week's massive rally

Crude oil futures gave back some of the previous week's massive gains on Monday, as traders cashed out of the market after prices scored their biggest two-day percentage gain since 2009 last week.
On the ICE Futures Exchange in London, Brent oil for October delivery slumped $1.69, or 3.37%, to trade at $48.37 a barrel during U.S. morning hours.
Brent futures rallied to $50.98 on Friday, the strongest level since August 11, before closing at $50.05, up $2.49, or 5.24%. On Thursday, Brent rallied $4.42, or 10.25%, only a few days after hitting a six-year low of $42.23.
London-traded Brent futures jumped $4.70, or 10.1%, last week, the first weekly gain in nine weeks, as traders returned to the market to close out bets on lower prices, a move known as short-covering.
Elsewhere, crude oil for delivery in October on the New York Mercantile Exchange declined $1.34, or 2.96%, to trade at $43.88 a barrel.
On Friday, Nymex oil prices jumped to $45.90, the most since August 11, before ending at $45.22, up $2.66, or 6.25%. On Thursday, futures soared $3.96, or 10.26%. New York-traded oil sank to a six-year low of $37.75 on August 24.
Nymex prices rallied $4.92, or 11.79%, last week, the largest weekly percentage gain since March 2009.
Crude oil prices have been under heavy selling pressure in recent months, as ongoing concerns over a glut in world markets drove down prices.
Global oil production is outpacing demand following a boom in U.S. shale oil production and after a decision by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries last year not to cut production.
Worries over high domestic U.S. oil production are likely to remain in focus after industry research group Baker Hughes (NYSE:BHI) said late Friday that the number of rigs drilling for oil in the U.S. increased by one last week to 675, the sixth straight weekly gain.
The rig count dropped for 29 straight weeks before rebounding modestly in recent weeks.
Meanwhile, concerns over the health of China's slowing economy and worries that the Federal Reserve will hike rates at its next policy meeting in September also weighed.
Market players looked ahead to a pair of manufacturing reports due out of China on Tuesday for further hints over the strength of the world's second largest economy.
The official China manufacturing purchasing managers' index was expected to fall to 49.7 in August from 50.0 in July.
Meanwhile, the final reading of the Caixin/Markit manufacturing purchasing managers’ index was forecast to inch up to 47.2 from a preliminary reading of 47.1, which was the lowest since July 2013.
A reading below 50.0 indicates industry contraction.
China is the world's second largest oil consumer after the U.S. and has been the engine of strengthening demand.
Investors also looked ahead to Friday’s U.S. jobs report for August, which could help to provide clarity on the likelihood of a near-term interest rate hike.
Comments by Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer on Friday suggested that the door was still open for a rate hike at the Fed's next meeting due to take place September 16-17.
Fischer said that the case for a rate increase in September was "pretty strong", though it was still too soon to say what the central bank might do.
The timing of a Fed rate hike has been a constant source of debate in the markets in recent months.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

WELCOME TO SVFX  (Technical Signals for intraday)


Ø Gold: rebound with Pivot: 1123

Our preference: Long positions above 1123 with targets @ 1146.5 & 1153 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Below 1123 look for further downside with 1117 & 1109 as targets.

Comment: The RSI is mixed with a bullish bias.

Key Levels
:
1160 

1153 
1146.5 
1134 Last
1123 
1117 
1109 

Ø  EUR/USD under pressure with Pivot: 1.1265
Our preference: Short positions below 1.1265 with targets @ 1.1155 & 1.11 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Above 1.1265 look for further upside with 1.131 & 1.135 as targets.

Comment: As long as 1.1265 is resistance, look for choppy price action with a bearish bias.
Key Levels:
1.135 ***
1.131 ***
1.1265 ***
1.1210 Last
1.1155 ***
1.11 ***
1.107 ***

GBP/USD under pressure with Pivot: 1.5445
Our preference: Short positions below 1.5445 with targets @ 1.5325 & 1.5265 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Above 1.5445 look for further upside with 1.55 & 1.557 as targets.
Comment: The RSI lacks upward momentum.

Key Levels:
1.557 ***
1.55 ***
1.5445 ***
1.5420 Last
1.5325 ***
1.5265 ***
1.521 **

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

WELCOME TO SVFX  (Technical Signals for intraday)

Ø Gold: the upside prevails with Pivot: 1123

Our preference: Long positions above 1123 with targets @ 1146.5 & 1153 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Below 1123 look for further downside with 1117 & 1109 as targets.

Comment: The RSI is mixed with a bullish bias.

Key Levels
:
1160 
1153 
1146.5 
1134.23 Last
1123 
1117 
1109 
 

Ø  EUR/USD under pressure with Pivot: 1.131
Our preference: Short positions below 1.131 with targets @ 1.1155 & 1.109 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Above 1.131 look for further upside with 1.135 & 1.141 as targets.

Comment: As long as 1.131 is resistance, look for choppy price action with a bearish bias.
Key Levels:
1.141 ***
1.135 ***
1.131 ***
1.1235 Last
1.1155 ***
1.109 ***
1.104 ***

GBP/USD caution with Pivot: 1.5445
Our preference: Short positions below 1.5445 with targets @ 1.5325 & 1.5265 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Above 1.5445 look for further upside with 1.55 & 1.557 as targets.

Comment: Intraday technical indicators are mixed and call for caution.

Key Levels:
1.557 ***
1.55 ***
1.5445 ***
1.5428 Last
1.5325 ***
1.5265 ***
1.521 **

Thursday, 27 August 2015

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

 WELCOME TO SVFX  (Technical Signals for intraday)


Ø Gold: under pressure with Pivot: 1135.2

Our preference: Short positions below 1135.2 with targets @ 1117 & 1109 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Above 1135.2 look for further upside with 1153 & 1163 as targets.

Comment: The RSI is capped by a bearish trend line.

Key Levels
:
1163 
1153 
1135.2 
1126.5 Last
1117 
1109 
1101 

Ø  EUR/USD the downside prevails with Pivot: 1.1395
Our preference: Short positions below 1.1395 with targets @ 1.1235 & 1.117 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Above 1.1395 look for further upside with 1.144 & 1.15 as targets.

Comment: The RSI is badly directed.
Key Levels:
1.15 ***
1.144 ***
1.1395 ***
1.1298 Last
1.1235 ***
1.117 ***
1.11 ***

GBP/USD the downside prevails with Pivot: 1.555
Our preference: Short positions below 1.555 with targets @ 1.541 & 1.536 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Above 1.555 look for further upside with 1.56 & 1.565 as targets.

Comment: The RSI is capped by a declining trend line.

Key Levels:
1.565 ***
1.56 ***
1.555 ***
1.5445 Last
1.541 ***
1.536 ***
1.5325 ***

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

WELCOME TO SVFX  (Technical Signals for intraday)

Ø Gold: under pressure with Pivot: 1140

Our preference: Short positions below 1140 with targets @ 1117 & 1109 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Above 1140 look for further upside with 1153 & 1163 as targets.

Comment: As long as 1140 is resistance, likely decline to 1117.

Key Levels
:
1163 
1153 
1140 
1127.64 Last
1117 
1109 
1101 

Ø  EUR/USD the downside prevails with Pivot: 1.144
Our preference: Short positions below 1.144 with targets @ 1.1295 & 1.1235 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Above 1.144 look for further upside with 1.15 & 1.156 as targets.

Comment: A break below 1.1295 would trigger a drop towards 1.1235.
Key Levels:
1.156 ***
1.15 ***
1.144 ***
1.1352 Last
1.1295 ***
1.1235 ***
1.117 ***

GBP/USD the downside prevails with Pivot: 1.56
Our preference: Short positions below 1.56 with targets @ 1.545 & 1.541 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Above 1.56 look for further upside with 1.565 & 1.57 as targets.

Comment: A break below 1.545 would trigger a drop towards 1.541.

Key Levels:
1.57 **
1.565 ***
1.56 ***
1.5500 Last
1.545 ***
1.541 ***
1.536 ***

Wednesday, 26 August 2015

Forex - USD/CAD pulls further away from 11-year peak

© Reuters.  Greenback moves lower vs. loonie despite upbeat U.S. data

The U.S. dollar was lower against its Canadian counterpart on Wednesday, pulling away from the previous session's 11-year peak as investors continued to monitor developments in China.
USD/CAD hit 1.3252 during early U.S. trade, the session low; the pair subsequently consolidated at 1.3294, sliding 0.32%.
The pair was likely to find support at 1.3143, Tuesday's low and resistance at 1.3355, Tuesday's high and an 11-year high.
The greenback was boosted after the People’s Bank of China cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.6% on Tuesday, in a bid to bolster economic growth after a plunge in the country’s stock market.
However, concerns over whether a free fall in China’s stocks will make the world’s second-largest economy weaker persisted. Shares in Shanghai opened higher on Wednesday, before ending down 1.3% in a volatile session.
Recent steep declines in Chinese equity markets have sparked fears that they will hasten an economic downturn and undermined investor confidence in the government’s ability to revitalize economic growth.
The turmoil in markets began when China unexpectedly devalued the yuan on August 11, sparking fears over the condition of the economy.
Markets shrugged off a report by the U.S. Commerce Department on Wednesday showing that total durable goods orders increased by 2.0% last month, compared to expectations for a decline of 0.4%.
Core durable goods orders, which exclude volatile transportation items, inched up 0.6%, topping forecasts for an increase of 0.4%.
The loonie was sharply higher against the euro, with EUR/CAD plummeting 1.59% to 1.5121.


TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

  WELCOME TO SVFX  (Technical Signals for intraday)


Ø Gold: the downside prevails with Pivot: 1140

Our preference: Short positions below 1140 with targets @ 1126 & 1119 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Above 1140 look for further upside with 1146.5 & 1153 as targets.

Comment: The RSI advocates for further decline.

Key Levels
:
1153 
1146.5 
1140 
1131.16 Last
1126 
1119 
1109 

Ø  EUR/USD under pressure with Pivot: 1.156
Our preference: Short positions below 1.156 with targets @ 1.1395 & 1.1345 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Above 1.156 look for further upside with 1.1625 & 1.1715 as targets.

Comment: The RSI is badly directed.
Key Levels:
1.1715 ***
1.1625 ***
1.156 ***
1.1419 Last
1.1395 ***
1.1345 ***
1.1295 ***

GBP/USD under pressure with Pivot: 1.568
Our preference: Short positions below 1.568 with targets @ 1.556 & 1.553 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Above 1.568 look for further upside with 1.5725 & 1.5755 as targets.

Comment: The RSI is badly directed.

Key Levels:
1.5755 **
1.5725 ***
1.568 ***
1.5594 Last
1.556 ***
1.553 ***
1.55 ***

Forex - Aussie slips lower vs. broadly stronger greenback

Aussie moves moderately lower against greenback in late trade

The Australian dollar slipped lower against its U.S. counterpart on Wednesday, despite the release of strong Australian construction data, as demand for the greenback continued to be broadly supported.
AUD/USD hit 0.7097 during late Asian trade, the pair's lowest since Monday; the pair subsequently consolidated at 0.7123, easing 0.09%.
The pair was likely to find support at 0.7050, Monday's low and a six-year low and resistance at 0.7253, Tuesday's high.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics reported on Wednesday that construction work doneincreased by 1.6% in the second quarter, beating expectations for a 1.5% decline. Construction work done fell by 0.8% in the the first quarter, whose figure was revised from a previously estimated 2.4% drop.
But the greenback remained broadly supported after the U.S. Conference Board said on Tuesday that its index of consumer confidence jumped to a seven-month high of 101.5 this month from a reading of 91.0 in July.
The U.S. dollar was also boosted after the People’s Bank of China cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.6% on Tuesday, in a bid to bolster economic growth after a plunge in the country’s stock market.
The Aussie was lower against the New Zealand dollar, with AUD/NZD sliding 0.37% to 1.0972.
Also Wednesday, Statistics New Zealand reported that the trade deficit widened to NZ$649 million in July from NZ$194 million in June, whose figure was revised from a previously estimated deficit of NZ$60 million.
Analysts had expected the trade deficit to widen to NZ$750 million last month.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

WELCOME TO SVFX  (Technical Signals for intraday)

Ø Gold: under pressure with Pivot: 1146.5

Our preference: Short positions below 1146.5 with targets @ 1126 & 1119 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Above 1146.5 look for further upside with 1153 & 1163 as targets.

Comment: As long as 1146.5 is resistance, likely decline to 1126.

Key Levels
:
1163 
1153 
1146.5 
1133.5 Last
1126 
1119 
1109 

Ø  EUR/USD the upside prevails with Pivot: 1.145
Our preference: Long positions above 1.145 with targets @ 1.1625 & 1.1715 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Below 1.145 look for further downside with 1.1395 & 1.1345 as targets.

Comment: Technically the RSI is above its neutrality area at 50.
Key Levels:
1.181 **
1.1715 **
1.1625 ***
1.1515 Last
1.145 ***
1.1395 ***
1.1345 ***

GBP/USD under pressure with Pivot: 1.5745
Our preference: Short positions below 1.5745 with targets @ 1.568 & 1.5655 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Above 1.5745 look for further upside with 1.5805 & 1.5835 as targets.

Comment: As long as the resistance at 1.5745 is not surpassed, the risk of the break below 1.568 remains high. 

Key Levels:
1.5835 ***
1.5805 ***
1.5745 ***
1.5714 Last
1.568 ***
1.5655 ***
1.5625 ***
script src='http://ajax.googleapis.com/ajax/libs/jquery/1.7.1/jquery.min.js' type='text/javascript'/>